Updated at 6:18 p.m.
Two prominent Vermont Democrats who had floated the prospect of challenging Republican Gov. Phil Scott this November have decided against it.
Former Gov. Howard Dean and former Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger both announced Monday that they would not run for public office this fall. With just 10 days remaining before the deadline to appear on Vermont’s primary election ballot, that leaves Vermont Democrats without a well-known candidate to take on the incumbent Republican.
Dean announced his intentions at a press conference Monday morning at the Waterbury town offices. Even as he stepped behind a bank of microphones, it was unclear whether he would join the race or not. He began by thanking supporters “who gathered signatures and organized the process of raising money and building a campaign from nothing.”
Then he let the trial balloon pop.
“I am not a candidate for the office of governor,” Dean said, more than three minutes into his prepared remarks.
The Burlington Democrat called his hypothetical campaign a “winnable race,” saying that polling showed him getting within 10 percentage points of Scott — who, he conceded, has consistently been named the most popular governor in the country.
But to prevail, Dean said, he would have to wage a “scorched earth, negative attack campaign, like the ones being run all over the country.”
“I am incredibly proud that Vermont is not like Texas or Florida, where creating enemies out of women, gay people and even librarians seems to be acceptable by both politicians and rewarded by the voters,” Dean said. “I don’t know if a campaign like that could get me elected, but I do know that it would be really harmful to our state and to our values.”
Pressed by a reporter whether he could run a campaign focused on critiquing Scott’s policy record, rather than attack his character, Dean answered, “That’s not a way to win.”
“I am not interested in doing this for the debate,” he said. “I’m interested in winning.”
Jim Dandeneau, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, told VTDigger that he was disappointed but unsurprised that Dean had decided against running. Challenging a popular incumbent “is always going to be uphill,” he said.
Add on the difficulties posed by a short campaign cycle, Dandeneau said, and, “I see where the reluctance is for a lot of people,” including a well-known candidate such as Dean.
“In any race against an incumbent — popular or not — your first job is to convince people that the incumbent doesn’t deserve to be reelected, and that story has not been told,” Dandeneau said.
“I don’t think anybody is unbeatable,” he said of Scott. But, he continued, “I think he is very difficult to beat.”
Dean, 75, said he would work to support whoever claims the gubernatorial nomination this year. He suggested that it should be someone younger than he is, saying, “I really think we ought to have somebody who’s 40, a governor who’s 40.”
“I think my experience is very, very valuable,” Dean said. “But this is a whole new generation of people that are going to be in charge of the world, and it is such a different world.”
Dean balked at the idea that his three-week public flirtation with a gubernatorial comeback — only to pull out shortly before the filing deadline — may have dissuaded younger prospective candidates with less name recognition from jumping into the race.
“I’m pretty confident that I spoke with everybody who had any serious interest at all,” Dean said, adding that he knew of one prospective candidate who conducted polling. “I thought about that a lot, but I was really careful not to bigfoot anybody. Because I think the future of the Democratic Party is 40-year-olds, not 75-year-olds.”
Paul Dame, who chairs the Vermont Republican Party, had a different read. Any prospective candidates considering a run likely held back when they heard rumblings of a Dean comeback, Dame said — and “once you sit down or sit back, it’s hard to get back up with two weeks to go.”
“I think we’re going to continue to see this as long as Phil Scott wants to run. He’s going to have a clear path,” Dame said. “And everybody who’s interested and who would be a viable candidate is going to wait their turn.”
Asked why he publicly contemplated jumping back into the fray, rather than spend his time recruiting younger candidates for the ticket, Dean said the ball was in their court — not his.
“I don’t think my chief role is to build the future of the Democratic Party,” the former Democratic National Committee chair said. “That’s not my job. You know, I’m 75 years old. My job is not to make sure the Democratic Party looks like me. It’s to let the Democratic Party evolve — and they are. We have some great potential candidates, and when they run is up to them.”
Dean went on to mimic how such a recruitment attempt might go: “‘Oh, come on, all you have to do is raise two-and-a-half million dollars running against a guy who’s at 75% in the polls, from nothing, because nobody knows who you are.’ I mean, it just doesn’t work like that.”
On Monday afternoon, Weinberger said that he, too, would not take on Scott.
In a written statement, the 54-year-old Burlington Democrat said that he was “committed to doing what (he) can to forge further progress on housing, climate and other urgent challenges.” However, he said, “I do not intend to be a candidate for public office this fall.”
Weinberger, who left office in April after 12 years as mayor, had been weighing a statewide run since at least last year. He told VTDigger last October that he was “absolutely exploring and going to be exploring for some time” whether such a run could help advance his policy priorities.
A Weinberger spokesperson, Samantha Sheehan, told VTDigger he was not available for an interview Monday to discuss his decision because it was his wedding anniversary and he had plans.
Thus far, the only declared Democratic gubernatorial candidate is Esther Charlestin, a Middlebury educator and consultant.
Dean, at his press conference Monday, said Charlestin is a “good person, she’s a good candidate,” though he stopped short of offering his endorsement ahead of the filing deadline for the August primary.
“Her problem will be raising money,” Dean said. “By the way, this would have been a $2 million race on each side, easily. That I can raise because of my past national associations, but the money will be hard for her.”
Dandeneau told VTDigger later Monday that Dean was “absolutely correct. This is going to be really expensive to do.”
Scott announced earlier this month that he would seek a fifth two-year term as governor, saying at the time that he “cannot step away at a time when Vermont’s Legislature is so far out of balance.”
Dame sounded borderline wistful about the gubernatorial matchup between Dean and Scott that never was, telling VTDigger, “From a narrative perspective, I think it was a race that Phil Scott would still win, and would help us create the contrast between Republicans and Democrats.”
“But at the same time, there was a concern, because Dean had the ability to make it rain here in Vermont with dollars from Washington,” Dame added.
