This commentary is by Rep. Peter Conlon, D-Cornwall. He is chair of the House Education Committee.
When it comes to two of the biggest issues facing Vermonters, Gov. Phil Scott has gone silent. I am sure he is out there, checking his enormous political capital, then deciding not to spend a penny of it leveling with Vermonters that making the changes our state needs in education and health care — to name the two I will focus on — is going to require a new reality.
Vermont’s decades-long demographic change — found in many other places in the U.S. and the world — has come home to roost. We are growing old; our birth rate is low; young people are back to their pre-Covid-19 ways of choosing to live in diverse, walkable cities with more economic opportunity; and our housing crisis continues.
This is changing the face of Vermont, particularly rural Vermont. We have far fewer students in our schools, and our aging demographic means higher demand on our health care system with fewer young, healthy Vermonters paying into the system.
Gov. Scott says nothing about Vermont’s health care system, which is on the brink of collapse, and very little about education since he floated the concept of sweeping changes, but has never been clear with Vermonters that we must have fewer schools, especially middle and high schools, to keep our system affordable.
Health care may be the most immediate and important crisis, and it doesn’t even make Gov. Scott’s list of top issues. The state’s main — really only — insurer, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Vermont, is on the verge of insolvency unless it gets a 20% rate increase or a helluva bailout.
Most of our 14 hospitals are in a similar situation. Our insurance premiums are anywhere from twice to four times as expensive as our border states. A 20% will drive small businesses and individuals who buy on the exchange out of Vermont far faster than taxes.
Gov. Scott has a road map to bending the cost curve sitting on his desk gathering dust. It is a commissioned study of Vermont’s system with clear recommendations to stabilize it and control costs. But it requires leveling with Vermonters, because we can no longer afford to maintain 14 hospitals all providing the same services. We can’t, and he needs to make that clear.
It is the same with public education. With fewer students, we can no longer afford to maintain all of the schools we operate today. We can’t, and Gov. Scott needs to make that clear.
No one else in Vermont has his megaphone, no one else has his clout, no one else has his political capital. It is time for Gov. Scott to give the volunteers who govern our education and health systems an assist. He needs to speak honestly, clearly and directly with Vermonters that our state has changed, and we need to adjust to those changes now, or watch our state slowly decline.
Of course there are other big issues. Solving homelessness and our housing crisis is going to take more than his solution of just relaxing Act 250 regulations. It is going to take a sustained level of support from the government. He would never say that.
We are ready to listen, Governor. Are you ready to speak frankly about what we really need to do? We can handle it, and we will find the right solutions together.
